The
25th anniversary this past week of the naval clash between China and
Vietnam in the Spratly Islands is not merely cause to reflect on
history; it speaks to one of the more disturbing contingencies in the
South China Sea now exercising minds in the region.
The 1988 clash at Johnson Reef saw Chinese naval frigates sink two
Vietnamese ships, leaving 64 sailors dead - some shot while standing on a
reef - and remains a point of friction between the two nations. But its
broader significance lies in the strategic nature of the operation.
The battle's aftermath saw China take and secure its first six
holdings in the Spratlys - fortifications that remain important today,
with one at Fiery Cross reef housing an early warning radar. Fourteen
years earlier the PLA navy had routed the South Vietnamese navy to
complete its occupation of the Paracels to the north - islands being
built up into a formidable military base.
At some point, some analysts note, China might want to secure the
rest of the Spratlys as its maritime power grows - a reflection of
Beijing's sovereign claims to the South China Sea as well as the
strategic value of the archipelago, which straddles some of the world's
most important sea lanes and sits atop rich oil and gas reserves and
fish stocks. That remains a source of constant worry for military
planners in Hanoi.
Privately, PLA officials and Chinese scholars talk frankly of
potential friction over Vietnam's 25 fortified holdings in the Spratlys -
far more than any other claimant and running loosely in a band from the
southwest to the northeast. Many were built in a frenzy of Vietnamese
activity in the months after the clash.
It is not just a question of Chinese sovereignty, they say; the
holdings might one day be used to contain China, as Vietnam's own naval
development continues and its ties with the US and its allies deepen.
"The Vietnamese must know that we will never allow them to even
attempt to contain us through those bases," one PLA strategist said.
Gary Li, a senior analyst with IHS Fairplay in London, said the
situation in the South China Sea was now vastly different to that of
1988. Beijing's strategists realise that international attention on the
area - and increasing Vietnamese naval capabilities that have made its
coastline a "shooting gallery" - mean that using force to grab reefs and
atolls is no longer a sound strategy.
Instead, China is building up its unchallenged hold on the Paracels
while asserting sovereignty over the Spratlys through an intensified
presence at sea with both naval and paramilitary fleets of vessels.
"Compared with the time when the physical occupation of the islands
meant everything, China has had to shift its strategy to one of
dominance of the maritime domain. So long as Vietnam doesn't base cruise
missile batteries and extensive radars on its holdings, or work too
closely with the US, for example, China knows it can keep to this
strategy," Li said.
"They will be able dominate the area irrespective of actual islands
and it will also allow them to protect any enhanced efforts to explore
for oil in the coming years as well."
For a sense of the frictions over the incident, look at YouTube
footage and comments that include extreme nationalistic rants and
sexually violent taunts.
While Vietnam's state press played down the recent anniversary of the
1979 Sino-Vietnamese border war - amid pressure from Beijing - several
pieces last week highlighted the efforts of the navy's young "martyrs".
"The history of their blood has permeated every grain of sand," one
commentator wrote, the language a reminder of the intensity of
Vietnamese claims.
A protest in downtown Hanoi was not covered by state media, however,
while the Chinese state press ignored the anniversary. Chinese
microbloggers touted the success of the venture, saying it must not be
forgotten. One compared it to a possible future confrontation with Japan
over the disputed Diaoyu islands.
"Should there be a war between China and Japan, it should be confined
to the sea only, just like the war between China and Vietnam. China can
defeat Japan just like it did to Vietnam."
Additional reporting by Teddy Ng
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