Tuesday, May 22, 2012

A suggested tactic for Vietnam in case of a sea battle with China

Those who monitoring recent development in the East Sea (South China Sea) can not avoid from worrying about approaching military conflicts . And  if a military conflict breaks out it would be definitely triggered by the Chinese side, not by a much smaller country in the region. There are at least four reasons to say so: 1) After the "detection period"  (from 2009 to late 2011) China now seems to have known that the extent of reaction by the international community is limited while  and the ASEAN alone has been divided  and neutralized to a necessary extent by Beijing's various tactics of  using economic and diplomatic measures ; 2) Beijing can now assure that no third power, including the U.S.A., Russia, will directly involve in a war between China and one of the  ASEAN states, even the case of the Philippines as an ally of the U.S., especially when it is just a small and quick battle (as analyzed by the Chinese themselves); 3) By this time, China has basically regrouped enough overwhelming forces comprising more than 1,000 ships of all types  beside a huge military base in Hainan Island and a logistical base in the Paracel Islands,  a giant oil rig just put in operation.  According to various intelligent sources, the Chinese sea-air forces have completed rehearsals for conflict situations, particularly for invasion of offshore islands; 4) Through the "collision" at this time around the Scarborouph island  Beijing seems to have chosen the "human wave" tactic alongside with the "hot war" one if necessary. A victory here will encourage the Chinese  to apply for other locations and with other countries. In short, after a period of preparation, the Chinese are now ready and determined to go ahead with  their scheme for the full control of the East Sea (you can refer to chinese deployed forces by this link http://dantri.com.vn/c36/s36-595785/cac-can-cu-quan-su-cua-trung-quoc-tren-bien-dong.htm).
Looking at the context and relationships and power balance in the East Sea at the moment, we can  figure out a new posture have been established, in which Chinese forces are totally overwhelming in this region. The only source of strength of Vietnam, the Philippines and ASEAN in general is located in the righteousness based on international  law and justice,but this has been blatantly denied by China while international organizations, including the UN, seems "powerless"; the more expected role of the United States has now shown unpredictable; and the "ASEAN unity" is revealing  rigging and disabled by wicked schemes of China during the past years. So, perhaps only in case such conflicts  prolongs and escalates into big wars then the Chinese may find themselves bogged down and denounced the international opinion. In other word, the Chinese only find obstacles when wars prolong. This is the situation Vietnam or any other weaker sides of conflict should force the Chinese forces into, at least during the transition time when the  theory force overwhelms the power of truth. 

As for the case of Vietnam, from long past experience the Vietnamese must rely on their internal forces or "force of self-reliance", in which  the positions of land, mountains, rivers and sea contribute important elements to defeat various invaders no matter where they come from . One key factor to make up the internal forces in case defending  sovereignty  and territory  in the East Sea can be found  with the S-shape running from  north to south of the East Sea. This is a dominant strategic position that no other regional countries posses.  

As widely known, given all efforts to be made Vietnam could only reach the balance of "one fighting 100" with the Chinese side if a war breaks out . However,  if we can break the conspiracy of quick wars or "blitzkrieg" as wanted by the enemy and  force them to fall into the quagmire, then we can  certainly win supports from the world and finally win the enemy. To do this, we need to workout a specific strategy which rely mainly on the support of firepower from the mainland, particularly by sophisticated missile pads located along the seacoast and from the bombers taking off from land bases. By this way, the entire western part of the East Sea, including  the Paracel and Spratly  and the exclusive economic zone of 200 nautical miles are in the range of direct fire from the main land . Most of the enemy's  forces including warships and submarines and stationed forces on off-shore islands are within the effective range of our missiles. This can provide necessary power attacks and also effective deterrent measures.

Above is just a suggestion idea aiming at defending strategy, not invading strategy.  It is even more worthy for Vietnam that is always the defending side of  wars./. 

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